Would a lower seed be better for the Suns?

The Suns, with their win in Oklahoma City a little over a week ago, proved my wife wrong. She said the team would only win 34 games this season, "I guarantee it." So with each win the Suns rattle off, I get a little more satisfaction in her being wrong (married guys- you know what I mean, right? We love our leading ladies, but we also love when they don't win an argument). My prediction was much more positive- 50 wins and a 6 seed in the playoffs. As they stand presently with 38 wins and 20 games left, I may yet be the winner of the preseason predictions. In fact, they just might exceed both my predictions. Here is how the schedule looks the rest of the way:




March:

Wed 03 @ LA Clippers

Thu 04 vs Utah

Sat 06 vs Indiana

Fri 12 vs LA Lakers

Sun 14 vs New Orleans

Tue 16 vs Minnesota

Fri 19 vs Utah

Sun 21 vs Portland

Mon 22 @ Golden State

Fri 26 vs New York

Sun 28 @ Minnesota

Tue 30 @ Chicago

Wed 31 @ New Jersey

April

Fri 02 @ Detroit

Sat 03 @ Milwaukee

Wed 07 vs San Antonio

Fri 09 @ Oklahoma City

Sun 11 vs Houston

Tue 13 vs Denver

Wed 14 @ Utah



Let's break down the rest of the Suns' games- the "book it" wins, the likely losses, and then the toss-ups.



The "book it" wins:



Tonight at the Clippers, at home vs Indiana, both games vs Minnesota, at Golden State, at New Jersey, at Chicago (they won't lose that game after being embarrassed at home), and at Detroit.



The likely losses:



At home vs Lakers, at Denver (but this could be a toss-up), and at Utah.



The toss-ups:



The 2 home games vs Utah, at home vs New Orleans, at home vs Portland , at Milwaukee, at home vs San Antonio, at Oklahoma City, and at home vs Houston.



So, it would seem that there are 8 wins that the Suns should get, 3 games they should lose, and then 8 in the air. If they take care of business against the 'book it' games and split the toss-up games, right there is 50 wins. I personally believe that they split the two Utah home games, and beat New Orleans, Portland, Milwaukee, San Antonio, and Houston, ending the season with 52 wins. I also predict sneaking in one win of the three likely losses. That would be 53. That would be pretty stinking good.



53 wins would land Phoenix anywhere between the third and, in a worst-case scenario, the sixth seed, but likely the fourth or fifth seed. Definitely a good thing, especially if there is home-court advantage. Or is it?



Ok, call me crazy for that last question. Maybe too much Cartoon Network, Nickelodeon, Demi Lovato, and Hannah Montana in my house has messed with my judgement. Just here me out. I am thinking about the playoffs. The Suns are playing really good basketball now. If they can keep this play up, they are as good as anyone in the league. But I am thinking about the whole playoffs. As a fourth or a fifth seed, I like the chances for advancing. The problem is that the next round would be the Lakers, and then, likely, good night.



I don't know how achieveable the third seed is, but I would almost prefer even the sixth seed over the fourth seed. Now, to clarify, I want the Suns to win 53 (or more) games and end up third, but if not that, I want them to win a lot and, because of the competition in the West, to end up sixth instead of fourth or fifth. They lose home-court, but I feel confident that they make it out of the first round regardless of the opponent. But as the third or sixth seed, they would not see Los Angeles until the conference finals. Then, anything can happen (like getting swept or beating them in 6).



Right now, Phoenix can play with anyone and beat anyone on any given night, but a long series is different. But I don't fear any team except the Lakers in a long series. So, at least for me, if they can't get to the number three spot, I'd rather that they end up number six, giving them the best chance to last longer once the playoffs start. Am I crazy? Convince me that I am.

They're the Spurs. I should hate them, but...

As I sit in my recliner watching Armageddon late Saturday night (with the rest of the family sleeping- I should be, too, but I enjoy the quiet house to wind down after a busy day), I realize that I am not as jacked up for the Suns/Spurs game in the morning as I normally would be. After all, for years, the Spurs have been the enemy, the Anti-Suns, Kryptonite. Tonight, I don't feel the same. Why is that?

The first thing I wonder...is it because I have to watch the second half recorded on the DVR? (The game starts at 11, we have church at 12:30. I mean, I love the Suns and yes they have blessed me many times in my life, but they didn't grant me life, they didn't guide me to the wonderful family, and heck, they haven't even blessed me with a championship. God certainly has the upper hand. Now, if the Suns were to bless me with a championship, then maybe things would be different. KIDDING! No, my faith does come before my fandom.) No, it has nothing to do with the DVR. Many a time have I either recorded the game or watched (near religiously) my phone, hoping to get happy text updates while away from home. That has never affected my hate for the Spurs or the passion for games against San Antonio.

Next, I have to wonder, is the game any less meaningful this time around? This certainly isn't the case. Phoenix, while currently in the fifth spot for playoff seeding, only holds a three game lead over the eighth seed. The team is only a game and a half behind Utah for the fourth seed and home court in the first round. San Antonio is currently a playoff team, and the game is in San Antonio. The Suns are looking to improve their road play, being as they are still under .500 on the road. So, clearly, the game is still important.

So, then, why is it that I feel that the rivalry has waned a bit? I think that there are a couple of reasons. Now, you may disagree and passionately hate the Spurs, but I think for many of us, the hate is less than it was. The first reason is that the players we hated most are gone. Bruce Bowen will no longer be taking kick swipes at players' heels or putting feet under a jumping player to land on, nor will he be kneeing players in the special place. He won't be man-handling Steve Nash on defense so much that we think that Nash may feel a little dirty after the game. Gone also is Robert Horry with his big shots and cheap shots. Sure, we are still miffed at Michael Finley when he signed with the Spurs, leaving us feeling like the spurned teenage girl that got led on by the guy she liked, but we never really hated him. We were jealous that the other girl got (again) the guy she was chasing after. Also, true it is that Flopper  (Manu Ginobili) is still there, but he has mostly been just a shell of who he was, and we know it. As for Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, how can you really hate them? They are both nice guys and Parker is married to Eva Longoria (who wouldn't love to be him, really?). They don't trash talk, they don't cheap shot (but they do whine, but, then again, so does our own two-time MVP), but you hate to play against them (but not hate them) because they are so good against us.

Additionally, the Suns are a different team. No longer here is the chip that Raja Bell carried on his shoulder constantly. There will be no more cheap "Hack-a-Shaq", no Boris Diaw to come off the bench during an altercation, no Mike D'Antoni for Gregg Popovich to befuddle.

The biggest reason for me, though, why the hate is no longer hate is that the Spurs are no longer the nemesis. They haven't won it in a while. They have had a tough year. They are showing weaknesses. They simply are not the same Spurs I hated. They are no longer "the team to go through." They are not the obstacle in our way. Part of that is because the Suns are also not considered title contenders this year. There is not the expectation for either team to win it all this year. This takes things down a notch. There is not as much on the line, and having it all on the line is what really gets us riled up. Plus, we live in Arizona. It's really hard for us to stay mad at the world when we live in place that is just so nice to be in.

In the end, do I really want the Suns to beat the Spurs? Well, duh, I REALLY want the Suns to win every game. That never changes. However, on Sunday, while watching the first half at home and then either watching the second half recorded three hours later or just following the game tweets I get, the hate won't be there like it has been. Am I wrong and misguided? Tell me what you think.

The Enigma That Is Amar’e

I love Amar’e. I hate Amar’e. I want to build the team around him. I want to show him the door. This is a view that many fans share. Even just moments before writing this, I am struggling with whether I want to see him traded or not.

There is no questioning his talent. He is almost without peer at his size and position in the league. He is athletic, strong, explosive, and can shoot the ball. For his career, he averages over 20 points per game and almost 9 rebounds per game, and is right at those averages for this year. Yet, what drives me (and other fans) crazy is what he doesn’t do. He is anywhere between awful and below average defensively. He doesn’t rebound a much as we all wish he did or think he should. He is dropping passes that in years past were assists for a teammate. He doesn’t appear to have the heart that others with far less talent have. He talks of wanting and deserving a maximum contract. He talks about being considered on the same level as LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. Why do we as fans do this?

I recently heard a saying that I think applies to how we view Amar’e- “You’re standing too close to the forest to see the trees.” We focus so much on his faults that we forget how great he really is. We see what he could be. We want him to be Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan, and the fact that he is anything less kills us. When reminded of his numbers, we say it is because of playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system and/or because he has Steve Nash making things easy for him. But remember the year BEFORE Steve Nash? Wait…Amar’e averaged 20 and 9. Career playoff numbers? 25 and more than 10. He is a spectacular player, if not elite, or at least in the conversation of elite.

So why would you trade a player like that, especially during the type of season the Suns are having? They are a competitive playoff team. Trading Stoudemire would likely send the team to lottery land, and, to make things worse, lottery land without the lottery pick, as Oklahoma City has their unprotected 2010 first round pick. If Phoenix keeps him, the team makes it to the playoffs, likely gets bumped in the first round, Stoudemire might opt out of the last year of his contract, and still no first round pick. It’s a tough call. Let’s look at both cases- to trade or not to trade.

The case for keeping Amar’e

As stated before, there are few players who can do what Stoudemire does. You simply cannot get equal production at his position. Only Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh would be an increase in production, as they both defend and rebound better than Amar’e. Yet trading for them does not work because Bosh, like Stoudemire has the early termination option in his contract after this season and is planning on using it. Boozer’s contract expires after this year and makes more money than Stoudemire. If you consider other upgrades at the position, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett are past their prime, Zach Randolph (while he is having a superb season) is not as athletic and would not be a good fit for the up tempo Suns (even if you ignore the character issues that followed him before now), and LaMarcus Aldridge, while athletic enough, doesn’t rebound enough.

Keeping Stoudemire makes the Suns a better team. Remember last season when he was injured and how great the Suns played? Oh yeah, they didn’t. They didn’t make the playoffs and that was WITH Shaquille O’Neal. Lose Amar’e, and you have Robin Lopez and Channing Frye left to pick up the offensive slack in the frontcourt. Yes, a trade would bring back some talent, but not likely from the power forward or center positions. Keeping him means the playoffs this year and maybe next (because he may choose to play out the final year of his deal).

There is always the possibility of extending his contract. Maybe he realizes that a ‘max’ contract likely would not happen and that if it did, he would probably end up on a miserable team. An extension of, say, 3 years at $12-14 million is not bad, and he could play on competitive teams with Steve Nash passing him the ball for two of those years. Additionally, he is entering his ‘prime’ age. He can still figure out how to be better. He will likely never be known a great or even good defender, but he can improve at his rebounding and leadership, and even if he doesn’t, he would still be producing at near elite levels.

The case for trading Amar’e

Even when considering the positives of keeping Stoudemire, there are still some looming issues for the Phoenix Suns- money and no first round pick in this year’s draft. Phoenix needs to shed salary because the team would really prefer to not pay the luxury tax. Amar’e’s desires have been made clear- he wants a maximum contract. Phoenix has made it clear that they do not want to pay maximum money. The idea is, then, to get SOMETHING for him before he leaves and then the team has a void.

Steve Kerr has said that the team must look at the present but keep an eye toward the future, even if it hurts a little now. The team drafted Earl Clark, and believes that he can be a solid player, if not a star at power forward. It needs a first round pick, as this year’s draft is considered to be talented. A trade could allow for salary relief, draft picks, and/or upgrading production in other positions. The Suns could use an upgrade at small forward- not saying that Grant Hill is playing poorly, but they would need increased production from that position and center to make up the lost production at power forward.

What I think

I think that trading Amar’e is necessary. The fan base is tired of his periods of uninspired play, even if it is accompanied by offensive brilliance. In unsettled economic times for the league and lagging attendance, adding also the labor uncertainty after next season, it would be unwise to pay him what he wants to be paid. I have seen enough flashes from Earl Clark offensively to make me believe that he will be Amar’e PLUS. He can create his own shot, his outside shot is getting better, he is explosive, AND he already plays defense and can rebound. I believe he will make a difference on this team as early as next season. What gives me even more hope is that the one doubt/knock on him (his work ethic) has not been an issue. Coach Alvin Gentry said this morning just how much his effort has changed. Talent plus effort equals stardom- Clark is going to be a star. I was not a believer a month ago. I am now.

Amar’e may yet become the consistently dominant force he can become, but I do not believe that it can happen here. It will take a new fan base and a strong coach, because he really desires to be the best. So, while it may hurt this year, Amar’e needs to go, but not for just anyone. It needs to be for picks or young players that will contribute, and at least one other position needs to be upgraded, in addition to meeting salary requirements. I, as a fan, hope he can develop into that player we wish he were, just as long as he consistently ends up at home for the summer before the Suns do.