The Suns, with their win in Oklahoma City a little over a week ago, proved my wife wrong. She said the team would only win 34 games this season, "I guarantee it." So with each win the Suns rattle off, I get a little more satisfaction in her being wrong (married guys- you know what I mean, right? We love our leading ladies, but we also love when they don't win an argument). My prediction was much more positive- 50 wins and a 6 seed in the playoffs. As they stand presently with 38 wins and 20 games left, I may yet be the winner of the preseason predictions. In fact, they just might exceed both my predictions. Here is how the schedule looks the rest of the way:
March:
Wed 03 @ LA Clippers
Thu 04 vs Utah
Sat 06 vs Indiana
Fri 12 vs LA Lakers
Sun 14 vs New Orleans
Tue 16 vs Minnesota
Fri 19 vs Utah
Sun 21 vs Portland
Mon 22 @ Golden State
Fri 26 vs New York
Sun 28 @ Minnesota
Tue 30 @ Chicago
Wed 31 @ New Jersey
April
Fri 02 @ Detroit
Sat 03 @ Milwaukee
Wed 07 vs San Antonio
Fri 09 @ Oklahoma City
Sun 11 vs Houston
Tue 13 vs Denver
Wed 14 @ Utah
Let's break down the rest of the Suns' games- the "book it" wins, the likely losses, and then the toss-ups.
The "book it" wins:
Tonight at the Clippers, at home vs Indiana, both games vs Minnesota, at Golden State, at New Jersey, at Chicago (they won't lose that game after being embarrassed at home), and at Detroit.
The likely losses:
At home vs Lakers, at Denver (but this could be a toss-up), and at Utah.
The toss-ups:
The 2 home games vs Utah, at home vs New Orleans, at home vs Portland , at Milwaukee, at home vs San Antonio, at Oklahoma City, and at home vs Houston.
So, it would seem that there are 8 wins that the Suns should get, 3 games they should lose, and then 8 in the air. If they take care of business against the 'book it' games and split the toss-up games, right there is 50 wins. I personally believe that they split the two Utah home games, and beat New Orleans, Portland, Milwaukee, San Antonio, and Houston, ending the season with 52 wins. I also predict sneaking in one win of the three likely losses. That would be 53. That would be pretty stinking good.
53 wins would land Phoenix anywhere between the third and, in a worst-case scenario, the sixth seed, but likely the fourth or fifth seed. Definitely a good thing, especially if there is home-court advantage. Or is it?
Ok, call me crazy for that last question. Maybe too much Cartoon Network, Nickelodeon, Demi Lovato, and Hannah Montana in my house has messed with my judgement. Just here me out. I am thinking about the playoffs. The Suns are playing really good basketball now. If they can keep this play up, they are as good as anyone in the league. But I am thinking about the whole playoffs. As a fourth or a fifth seed, I like the chances for advancing. The problem is that the next round would be the Lakers, and then, likely, good night.
I don't know how achieveable the third seed is, but I would almost prefer even the sixth seed over the fourth seed. Now, to clarify, I want the Suns to win 53 (or more) games and end up third, but if not that, I want them to win a lot and, because of the competition in the West, to end up sixth instead of fourth or fifth. They lose home-court, but I feel confident that they make it out of the first round regardless of the opponent. But as the third or sixth seed, they would not see Los Angeles until the conference finals. Then, anything can happen (like getting swept or beating them in 6).
Right now, Phoenix can play with anyone and beat anyone on any given night, but a long series is different. But I don't fear any team except the Lakers in a long series. So, at least for me, if they can't get to the number three spot, I'd rather that they end up number six, giving them the best chance to last longer once the playoffs start. Am I crazy? Convince me that I am.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Would a lower seed be better for the Suns?
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